Monday, December 31, 2007
Sunday, December 30, 2007
大爆炸之前的宇宙
宇宙有始而無終，這是英國著名理論物理學家斯蒂芬。霍金對宇宙的起源和歸宿問題提出的最新解釋。 目前普遍認可的宇宙誕生學說是所謂的"大爆炸"理論，它認爲宇宙發端於距今約120億年之前的大爆炸，大爆炸形成了時間、空間和物質。但大爆炸之前宇宙的圖景如何，天文學家們至今莫衷一是。
據英國《星期日泰晤士報》 報道，霍金與其合作者、英國康橋大學數學物理教授圖羅克最新提出的"開放暴脹"理論認爲，宇宙最初的模樣像一個豌豆的物體，懸浮於一片沒有時間的真空，"豌豆"狀的宇宙存在的時間與"大爆炸"相隔一個極短瞬間。 該理論認爲，"豌豆"狀的宇宙在"大爆炸"前的瞬間內經歷了被稱爲"暴脹"的極其快速的膨脹過程。宇宙在大爆炸後不到１秒的時間裏膨脹了大約１０^３０倍，大約和橘子一般大小，然後開始以較穩定的速率膨脹，直到現在，大約１５０億年，成爲目前的樣子。另外，霍金和圖羅克還根據"開放暴脹"理論推斷，宇宙最終將無限地膨脹下去，而不是像一些天文學家所認爲的，膨脹到一定程度後會在引力作用下收縮。 在這個過程中，物質“疙瘩”逐步形成了星系、恒星以及生命。這個模型暴脹期的長短是個關鍵。若稍短，物質爲充分散開，原生宇宙就有重新坍縮爲起點；若稍長，原生宇宙的物質則過於分散，形不成星系和恒星，自然也就不會出現生命和人類。 １９８７年霍金進一步提出了“嬰兒宇宙”模型，兩個大宇宙通過一個細“管子”連接起來，這個細管子稱爲“蟲洞”，大宇宙爲母宇宙，可能存在著從母宇宙分岔出去的另一端是自由的蟲洞，這樣的管子成爲子宇宙、嬰兒宇宙。就是說除了我們生存的宇宙之外還可能存在著衆多的由蟲洞連接起來的其他宇宙。 １９９２年，薩莫林在前人基礎上提出了宇宙自然選擇學說。母宇宙是空間閉合的，猶如一個黑洞，該黑洞在生存了一段時間後坍縮爲一個奇點，奇點又會反彈爆炸膨脹爲新的下一代宇宙。 這個學說的要點是，子宇宙中的物理常數較之母宇宙的物理常數會有小的、或強或弱的隨機變異，新生的嬰兒宇宙在再次坍縮成奇點前能膨脹到幾倍普克郎長度大小，隨機變異的物理常數有可能允許小小的暴脹，子宇宙可變的較大，當它足夠大時，可分隔爲兩個或更多的不同區域，每個區域又坍縮爲一個新的奇點，新奇點又觸發下一代的子宇宙，如此時代相傳，有的小宇宙重又坍縮，有的具有某些基本常數值的宇宙能更有效的産生許多黑洞，從而較具有其他某些基本常數值的宇宙留下更多的後代，借用生物進化論的術語，它們是被“自然選擇”下來的，經“選擇”作用，産生越來越多的黑洞，也就形成了更多的宇宙。 如果宇宙確是由以前的宇宙世代經過這種“自然選擇”而産生的話，那麽應該預期我們生存在其中的宇宙會具有所觀測到的樣子並正好具有目前測知的基本常數值。這個學說的另一要點是關於恒星的存在。在許多情況下，恒星是黑洞的前身。在氣體和塵埃雲中，恒星仍在形成。在碳塵埃微粒表面進行著的化學反應使氣體冷卻並促使氣雲坍縮。但碳塵埃粒子是從那裏來的呢？ 斯莫林指出，碳元素是由核聚變反應産生的這一情況只有在質子的質量稍大於中子的質量時才會發生，如果兩者質量之差比氦核的結合能大的多，則質子和中子不可能粘在一起形成氦核。沒有氦，聚變反應鏈在第一階段便終止了，根本形不成更重的元素，從而使恒星將少得多，自然也不會有多少黑洞，因此在任何一個宇宙中，若其中質子與中子的質量相差較大，將只能産生很少的宇宙，也就沒有什麽“選擇”的餘地了。 霍金和圖羅克的新理論在科學界引起了不同的反應。"暴脹"理論權威之一、俄羅斯物理學家林德對霍金等的理論提出了批評。林德稱，宇宙自始至終存在，試圖發現一個起點和所謂的終點是沒有意義的。 而英國的一些著名天文學家則出言謹慎。他們指出，霍金的新理論完全是按照物理學定律純理論推算的結果，它是否揭示了宇宙的本質還有待幹實際觀測的考驗。據悉，美國將於兩年後發射一顆衛星來測量宇宙大爆炸遺留的微波輻射，這很可能爲霍金的理論提供檢驗。
據英國《星期日泰晤士報》 報道，霍金與其合作者、英國康橋大學數學物理教授圖羅克最新提出的"開放暴脹"理論認爲，宇宙最初的模樣像一個豌豆的物體，懸浮於一片沒有時間的真空，"豌豆"狀的宇宙存在的時間與"大爆炸"相隔一個極短瞬間。 該理論認爲，"豌豆"狀的宇宙在"大爆炸"前的瞬間內經歷了被稱爲"暴脹"的極其快速的膨脹過程。宇宙在大爆炸後不到１秒的時間裏膨脹了大約１０^３０倍，大約和橘子一般大小，然後開始以較穩定的速率膨脹，直到現在，大約１５０億年，成爲目前的樣子。另外，霍金和圖羅克還根據"開放暴脹"理論推斷，宇宙最終將無限地膨脹下去，而不是像一些天文學家所認爲的，膨脹到一定程度後會在引力作用下收縮。 在這個過程中，物質“疙瘩”逐步形成了星系、恒星以及生命。這個模型暴脹期的長短是個關鍵。若稍短，物質爲充分散開，原生宇宙就有重新坍縮爲起點；若稍長，原生宇宙的物質則過於分散，形不成星系和恒星，自然也就不會出現生命和人類。 １９８７年霍金進一步提出了“嬰兒宇宙”模型，兩個大宇宙通過一個細“管子”連接起來，這個細管子稱爲“蟲洞”，大宇宙爲母宇宙，可能存在著從母宇宙分岔出去的另一端是自由的蟲洞，這樣的管子成爲子宇宙、嬰兒宇宙。就是說除了我們生存的宇宙之外還可能存在著衆多的由蟲洞連接起來的其他宇宙。 １９９２年，薩莫林在前人基礎上提出了宇宙自然選擇學說。母宇宙是空間閉合的，猶如一個黑洞，該黑洞在生存了一段時間後坍縮爲一個奇點，奇點又會反彈爆炸膨脹爲新的下一代宇宙。 這個學說的要點是，子宇宙中的物理常數較之母宇宙的物理常數會有小的、或強或弱的隨機變異，新生的嬰兒宇宙在再次坍縮成奇點前能膨脹到幾倍普克郎長度大小，隨機變異的物理常數有可能允許小小的暴脹，子宇宙可變的較大，當它足夠大時，可分隔爲兩個或更多的不同區域，每個區域又坍縮爲一個新的奇點，新奇點又觸發下一代的子宇宙，如此時代相傳，有的小宇宙重又坍縮，有的具有某些基本常數值的宇宙能更有效的産生許多黑洞，從而較具有其他某些基本常數值的宇宙留下更多的後代，借用生物進化論的術語，它們是被“自然選擇”下來的，經“選擇”作用，産生越來越多的黑洞，也就形成了更多的宇宙。 如果宇宙確是由以前的宇宙世代經過這種“自然選擇”而産生的話，那麽應該預期我們生存在其中的宇宙會具有所觀測到的樣子並正好具有目前測知的基本常數值。這個學說的另一要點是關於恒星的存在。在許多情況下，恒星是黑洞的前身。在氣體和塵埃雲中，恒星仍在形成。在碳塵埃微粒表面進行著的化學反應使氣體冷卻並促使氣雲坍縮。但碳塵埃粒子是從那裏來的呢？ 斯莫林指出，碳元素是由核聚變反應産生的這一情況只有在質子的質量稍大於中子的質量時才會發生，如果兩者質量之差比氦核的結合能大的多，則質子和中子不可能粘在一起形成氦核。沒有氦，聚變反應鏈在第一階段便終止了，根本形不成更重的元素，從而使恒星將少得多，自然也不會有多少黑洞，因此在任何一個宇宙中，若其中質子與中子的質量相差較大，將只能産生很少的宇宙，也就沒有什麽“選擇”的餘地了。 霍金和圖羅克的新理論在科學界引起了不同的反應。"暴脹"理論權威之一、俄羅斯物理學家林德對霍金等的理論提出了批評。林德稱，宇宙自始至終存在，試圖發現一個起點和所謂的終點是沒有意義的。 而英國的一些著名天文學家則出言謹慎。他們指出，霍金的新理論完全是按照物理學定律純理論推算的結果，它是否揭示了宇宙的本質還有待幹實際觀測的考驗。據悉，美國將於兩年後發射一顆衛星來測量宇宙大爆炸遺留的微波輻射，這很可能爲霍金的理論提供檢驗。
Saturday, December 29, 2007
（1985.01.30）貪污的後患
貪污是沒有明確定義的。這一點，讀者可能感到詫異。一般人認為貪污是指非法地收受金錢或酬報。但行騙雖是非法，卻說不上是貪污。一間私營企業內的成員，瞞著公司收取回傭，是行騙，不是貪污。行騙與貪污的主要分別，是前者是可以清楚地指出受害人或受騙人。貪污呢？我們不僅是難以指出受害人，而且好些貪污是沒有受害人的。
貪污是與道德無關的。假若社會認為不道德地收取酬報，算是貪污，那麼貪污的概念就更會被弄得一塌糊塗了。事實上，一樣被眾所公認是貪污的行為，不一定是不道德的。一個監獄官非法地收了金錢，替囚犯加些膳食，不是貪污是什麼？但「不道德」何在？
很多時，非法交易與貪污起了混淆。一個學校老師，違例將試卷題目出售，是否貪污？我個人認為這是一項非法交易，不是貪污。假若賣試題是貪污，那麼販毒也是貪污了。
貪污的定義
以「貪污」為題寫文章，我不能不先給貪污下一個定義。我認為包括下列三項特徵才能構成「貪污」。第一，貪污是違反法律的行為——雖然非法不一定是貪污，但貪污卻一定是非法的（這避開了道德的問題）。第二，貪污受賄者一定是政府或國家的雇員（這避開了私營企業內的行騙）。第三，受賄者所回報的供應，是服務而不是物品（這避開了非法交易的混淆）。我不敢肯定以上提出的「貪污」定義，是正確無誤的。但這是我在短期內所能想出的最清楚的定義。
我們都知道在中國，貪污的行為正在廣泛流行。但我認為這「廣泛性」並不如一般人所說的那麼嚴重。在目前的中國，政府管制市場的規例舉不勝舉，而政府幹部及國家職工更是不計其數。管制引致貪污，而根據上文的定義，貪污者只限于政府的雇員，中國的貪污豈有不廣泛之理？從這一個角度看，比起印度、印尼、泰國、菲律賓等地方，中國的貪污，在管制及政府雇員的比率上，只可算是「小兒科」。天下烏鴉一般黑，在某程度上，貪污是世界任何地方都有的。沒有地方沒政府，沒有有政府的地方沒管制法例。
走後門與貪污不同
多年以來，中國的「走後門」是舉世知名的。在《從李子樹看中國的產權轉變》一文內，我指出走後門是一種特權買賣，不算是貪污。為什麼呢？因為我們不能確定走後門是非法的。在共產或非私產的制度下，權利的界定是以人或以階級劃分的。一個有特權坐飛機或購買高級物品的幹部，受了恩惠，利用特權協助他人買到這些物品，不一定是犯了法。在美國，國會的議員有不明顯的特權，每年「介紹」兩三個人移民到美國，受的酬報可大可小，但不能太明顯。這是特權買賣，不是貪污。同樣地，在外國，有些大學的教授也有不明顯的特權「介紹」學生入學。要是使用這些特權一點酬報也沒有，特權要來作什麼？但明顯的酬報畢竟是不大雅觀，容易引起外人反感，所以若能不明顯地將特權出售，大家心照不宣，是被容許的。形容不明顯的特權交易為走後門，頗為恰當。走後門不是中國獨有，但因為中國昔日施行共產政制，幹部特權等級繁多，走後門就顯得普遍了。
貪污是沒有法定的權力的。在位有權的人，非法地濫用權力，以服務換取酬報，就成了貪污。我曾經指出，中國從走後門轉向貪污是一個好現象，因為這反映了權利的界定是逐漸地從幹部等級特權轉到以資產界定權利那方面去。幹部的特權漸減，而私產的權利漸增，再加上有私產性的市場受到多種管制，走後門轉向貪污是必然的事。又因為中國的制度轉變得快，因此頗為混亂，走後門及貪污並行，一下子難以分辨。
貪污起於管制
市場的交易，不管物品交易還是生產要素交易，買賣雙方都有利可圖，對社會是有利的。但若這些市場受到管制，利益就難以實現。貪污既能在某程度上避去管制，有了管制的存在，貪污也就有利可圖了。事實上，不僅是管制市場會引起貪污，任何管制法例也是會引起貪污的。香港的建築有法例，工務局的雇員就有機可乘；消防有法例，消防員就會打主意；出入口有法例，工商署的雇員就難以自製；賭、毒、娼有管制，員警就成了廉政公署的對象。要完全禁止貪污是不可能的。管制越甚，違法的價值越高，貪污的可能性就越大了。
從社會的角度來衡量，貪污是有利還是有害呢？答案是要看管制的性質而定。有些管制是為大眾的利益（例如某些安全法例），違法會導致害人的效果。但有很多管制，若被違反了沒有人受損，以賄賂來避去管制，對社會是有利的。外匯管制、禁止商品進出口、管制價格，政府官員受了賄，容許了不准許的，使大眾得益，何害之有？因管制市場交易而引起的貪污，十居其九對社會都有貢獻。
在今日的中國，市場是遠比幾年前開放了。但政府對市場的各種管制，比比皆是！在外貿方面，除了外匯管制以外，出口要批文，入口要批文，而大都是要經北京批准的。此外關稅之繁，費用之雜，手續之多，若非親歷其境，聽起來就有點難以置信。外資到中國設廠、建酒店，在雇用勞工及議訂合約的各種問題上，因管制而引起的困難，也是自成一家。其他國營企業，如電話、電燈、食水、原油、公共交通等行業，更是一無是處。「廣州有一怪，電話唔夠單車快」這句話，是對國營企業一個適當的寫照。
在管制繁多的情況下，貪污叢生在所難免。尤其是在經濟開放的過程中，權利逐漸由等級轉到資產上，可以圖利發財的機會激增。管制市場是阻止了這些機會的實現，要打通財路的人就願意花錢，而可以權力來「特許」交易的幹部，就成了貪污者。但這些貪污的行為，畢竟是助長了市場的運作。沒有管制當然是比貪污好，因為貪污的交易費用是遠比自由市場的高。但既有管制，不貪污就妨礙了不少對社會有貢獻的交易。
如果在交易及投資的市場沒有管制，貪污就不可能在這些市場產生了。但在目前正在改革的中國，我們是不能期望政府當局一下子就採用自由市場。我們要記著在不久之前，中國還是一個施行極端共產政制的國家，不僅反對私產，反對市場，就是賺錢也是有罪的。改革任何制度，不僅得益分子會反對，而歷來中國執政者對私產及自由市場的各種謬誤，也是需要時日才能修正的。所以我認為在中國的前途上，我們不能妄下判斷，不能苛求各種管制的急速解除，也不能大事批評貪污的盛行。歷史上，我們從來沒有見過一個比中國開放得更快的共產國家；單是這一點，我就不能不對鄧小平衷心佩服。
管制可能起於貪污
根據以上的分析，我可以說會阻止中國經濟發展的不是貪污本身，而是貪污所帶來的一個後患：為了要利便貪污，管制就有了頑固的存在性。有了管制，貪污在所必然，大事壓制貪污對市場的發展不利，但一旦不同的幹部在不同的管制上界定了貪污的權利，為了保障自己的利益，他們就會極力反對管制的解除。到了那一天，中國就會走上印度的路，要有更大的改進就困難了。換言之，在以階級界定權利轉向以資產界定權利的路途上，一個很可能發生的不幸，就是將等級特權改為貪污特權。
在中國前途的問題上，我認為中國走回頭路的機會是很微小的——這個觀點，不少讀者及朋友都不同意；我將會另文解釋。但向前看，我卻不敢肯定中國不會走「歪」了，走向「為貪污而管制」的路。歷史的經驗告訴我們，這個貪污的後患是很現實的。
有不少朋友認為中國是改革得太快了，過於混亂，應該改慢一點。這觀點我是不同意的。改進若是較慢，稍微停止下來，幹部就有機會將管制的權益界定分配，使貪污有了固定的權利，管制也就驅之不去了。改進得快，使目前的貪污難有界定了的特權，逐步減少管制的機會就大得多。
在改革任何制度的過程中，訊息及思想上的謬誤是一種障礙，得益分子要維護權益也是一種障礙。謬誤的障礙，只要中國能堅持門戶開放，假以時日，總是會被修正的。但若干部的貪污有了特權界定，要剷除就難於上青天了。
二○○二年後記
一九八四年我開始提出中國可能走上印度之路，其後再三重提，引起很大的反響。印度之路是把貪污的權利界定了，可以買賣，甚至可以承繼，貪污於是制度化了，改革就不能再進。自八十年代初的改革起，二十年來，中國有兩三個時期走近于印度之路，令人心驚膽戰。
我認為中國到今天還沒有走上印度之路，主要是因為改革以經濟為先。若先搞民主政治改革，情況可不同了。民主貪污自上而下，獨裁貪污自下而上。後者只要上不到最高層，印度之路是走不成的。民主的頭頭通常只做幾年，貪污的代價小，故自上而下。獨裁的頭頭貪污代價大，故自下而上。
一九九六年我在貪污這題目上作了一次簡短的講話，錄音被整理成短文，在美國發表後受到重視。該文的要點，是指出貪污不僅因為管制而起，而好些管制是因為利便貪汙而設立的。
貪污是與道德無關的。假若社會認為不道德地收取酬報，算是貪污，那麼貪污的概念就更會被弄得一塌糊塗了。事實上，一樣被眾所公認是貪污的行為，不一定是不道德的。一個監獄官非法地收了金錢，替囚犯加些膳食，不是貪污是什麼？但「不道德」何在？
很多時，非法交易與貪污起了混淆。一個學校老師，違例將試卷題目出售，是否貪污？我個人認為這是一項非法交易，不是貪污。假若賣試題是貪污，那麼販毒也是貪污了。
貪污的定義
以「貪污」為題寫文章，我不能不先給貪污下一個定義。我認為包括下列三項特徵才能構成「貪污」。第一，貪污是違反法律的行為——雖然非法不一定是貪污，但貪污卻一定是非法的（這避開了道德的問題）。第二，貪污受賄者一定是政府或國家的雇員（這避開了私營企業內的行騙）。第三，受賄者所回報的供應，是服務而不是物品（這避開了非法交易的混淆）。我不敢肯定以上提出的「貪污」定義，是正確無誤的。但這是我在短期內所能想出的最清楚的定義。
我們都知道在中國，貪污的行為正在廣泛流行。但我認為這「廣泛性」並不如一般人所說的那麼嚴重。在目前的中國，政府管制市場的規例舉不勝舉，而政府幹部及國家職工更是不計其數。管制引致貪污，而根據上文的定義，貪污者只限于政府的雇員，中國的貪污豈有不廣泛之理？從這一個角度看，比起印度、印尼、泰國、菲律賓等地方，中國的貪污，在管制及政府雇員的比率上，只可算是「小兒科」。天下烏鴉一般黑，在某程度上，貪污是世界任何地方都有的。沒有地方沒政府，沒有有政府的地方沒管制法例。
走後門與貪污不同
多年以來，中國的「走後門」是舉世知名的。在《從李子樹看中國的產權轉變》一文內，我指出走後門是一種特權買賣，不算是貪污。為什麼呢？因為我們不能確定走後門是非法的。在共產或非私產的制度下，權利的界定是以人或以階級劃分的。一個有特權坐飛機或購買高級物品的幹部，受了恩惠，利用特權協助他人買到這些物品，不一定是犯了法。在美國，國會的議員有不明顯的特權，每年「介紹」兩三個人移民到美國，受的酬報可大可小，但不能太明顯。這是特權買賣，不是貪污。同樣地，在外國，有些大學的教授也有不明顯的特權「介紹」學生入學。要是使用這些特權一點酬報也沒有，特權要來作什麼？但明顯的酬報畢竟是不大雅觀，容易引起外人反感，所以若能不明顯地將特權出售，大家心照不宣，是被容許的。形容不明顯的特權交易為走後門，頗為恰當。走後門不是中國獨有，但因為中國昔日施行共產政制，幹部特權等級繁多，走後門就顯得普遍了。
貪污是沒有法定的權力的。在位有權的人，非法地濫用權力，以服務換取酬報，就成了貪污。我曾經指出，中國從走後門轉向貪污是一個好現象，因為這反映了權利的界定是逐漸地從幹部等級特權轉到以資產界定權利那方面去。幹部的特權漸減，而私產的權利漸增，再加上有私產性的市場受到多種管制，走後門轉向貪污是必然的事。又因為中國的制度轉變得快，因此頗為混亂，走後門及貪污並行，一下子難以分辨。
貪污起於管制
市場的交易，不管物品交易還是生產要素交易，買賣雙方都有利可圖，對社會是有利的。但若這些市場受到管制，利益就難以實現。貪污既能在某程度上避去管制，有了管制的存在，貪污也就有利可圖了。事實上，不僅是管制市場會引起貪污，任何管制法例也是會引起貪污的。香港的建築有法例，工務局的雇員就有機可乘；消防有法例，消防員就會打主意；出入口有法例，工商署的雇員就難以自製；賭、毒、娼有管制，員警就成了廉政公署的對象。要完全禁止貪污是不可能的。管制越甚，違法的價值越高，貪污的可能性就越大了。
從社會的角度來衡量，貪污是有利還是有害呢？答案是要看管制的性質而定。有些管制是為大眾的利益（例如某些安全法例），違法會導致害人的效果。但有很多管制，若被違反了沒有人受損，以賄賂來避去管制，對社會是有利的。外匯管制、禁止商品進出口、管制價格，政府官員受了賄，容許了不准許的，使大眾得益，何害之有？因管制市場交易而引起的貪污，十居其九對社會都有貢獻。
在今日的中國，市場是遠比幾年前開放了。但政府對市場的各種管制，比比皆是！在外貿方面，除了外匯管制以外，出口要批文，入口要批文，而大都是要經北京批准的。此外關稅之繁，費用之雜，手續之多，若非親歷其境，聽起來就有點難以置信。外資到中國設廠、建酒店，在雇用勞工及議訂合約的各種問題上，因管制而引起的困難，也是自成一家。其他國營企業，如電話、電燈、食水、原油、公共交通等行業，更是一無是處。「廣州有一怪，電話唔夠單車快」這句話，是對國營企業一個適當的寫照。
在管制繁多的情況下，貪污叢生在所難免。尤其是在經濟開放的過程中，權利逐漸由等級轉到資產上，可以圖利發財的機會激增。管制市場是阻止了這些機會的實現，要打通財路的人就願意花錢，而可以權力來「特許」交易的幹部，就成了貪污者。但這些貪污的行為，畢竟是助長了市場的運作。沒有管制當然是比貪污好，因為貪污的交易費用是遠比自由市場的高。但既有管制，不貪污就妨礙了不少對社會有貢獻的交易。
如果在交易及投資的市場沒有管制，貪污就不可能在這些市場產生了。但在目前正在改革的中國，我們是不能期望政府當局一下子就採用自由市場。我們要記著在不久之前，中國還是一個施行極端共產政制的國家，不僅反對私產，反對市場，就是賺錢也是有罪的。改革任何制度，不僅得益分子會反對，而歷來中國執政者對私產及自由市場的各種謬誤，也是需要時日才能修正的。所以我認為在中國的前途上，我們不能妄下判斷，不能苛求各種管制的急速解除，也不能大事批評貪污的盛行。歷史上，我們從來沒有見過一個比中國開放得更快的共產國家；單是這一點，我就不能不對鄧小平衷心佩服。
管制可能起於貪污
根據以上的分析，我可以說會阻止中國經濟發展的不是貪污本身，而是貪污所帶來的一個後患：為了要利便貪污，管制就有了頑固的存在性。有了管制，貪污在所必然，大事壓制貪污對市場的發展不利，但一旦不同的幹部在不同的管制上界定了貪污的權利，為了保障自己的利益，他們就會極力反對管制的解除。到了那一天，中國就會走上印度的路，要有更大的改進就困難了。換言之，在以階級界定權利轉向以資產界定權利的路途上，一個很可能發生的不幸，就是將等級特權改為貪污特權。
在中國前途的問題上，我認為中國走回頭路的機會是很微小的——這個觀點，不少讀者及朋友都不同意；我將會另文解釋。但向前看，我卻不敢肯定中國不會走「歪」了，走向「為貪污而管制」的路。歷史的經驗告訴我們，這個貪污的後患是很現實的。
有不少朋友認為中國是改革得太快了，過於混亂，應該改慢一點。這觀點我是不同意的。改進若是較慢，稍微停止下來，幹部就有機會將管制的權益界定分配，使貪污有了固定的權利，管制也就驅之不去了。改進得快，使目前的貪污難有界定了的特權，逐步減少管制的機會就大得多。
在改革任何制度的過程中，訊息及思想上的謬誤是一種障礙，得益分子要維護權益也是一種障礙。謬誤的障礙，只要中國能堅持門戶開放，假以時日，總是會被修正的。但若干部的貪污有了特權界定，要剷除就難於上青天了。
二○○二年後記
一九八四年我開始提出中國可能走上印度之路，其後再三重提，引起很大的反響。印度之路是把貪污的權利界定了，可以買賣，甚至可以承繼，貪污於是制度化了，改革就不能再進。自八十年代初的改革起，二十年來，中國有兩三個時期走近于印度之路，令人心驚膽戰。
我認為中國到今天還沒有走上印度之路，主要是因為改革以經濟為先。若先搞民主政治改革，情況可不同了。民主貪污自上而下，獨裁貪污自下而上。後者只要上不到最高層，印度之路是走不成的。民主的頭頭通常只做幾年，貪污的代價小，故自上而下。獨裁的頭頭貪污代價大，故自下而上。
一九九六年我在貪污這題目上作了一次簡短的講話，錄音被整理成短文，在美國發表後受到重視。該文的要點，是指出貪污不僅因為管制而起，而好些管制是因為利便貪汙而設立的。
Sunday, December 23, 2007
Monday, December 3, 2007
Collected Quotes from Albert Einstein
"Any intelligent fool can make things bigger, more complex, and more violent. It takes a touch of genius -- and a lot of courage -- to move in the opposite direction."
"Imagination is more important than knowledge."
"Gravitation is not responsible for people falling in love."
"I want to know God's thoughts; the rest are details."
"The hardest thing in the world to understand is the income tax."
"Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one."
"The only real valuable thing is intuition."
"A person starts to live when he can live outside himself."
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice."
"God is subtle but he is not malicious."
"Weakness of attitude becomes weakness of character."
"I never think of the future. It comes soon enough."
"The eternal mystery of the world is its comprehensibility."
"Sometimes one pays most for the things one gets for nothing."
"Science without religion is lame. Religion without science is blind."
"Anyone who has never made a mistake has never tried anything new."
"Great spirits have often encountered violent opposition from weak minds."
"Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler."
"Common sense is the collection of prejudices acquired by age eighteen."
"Science is a wonderful thing if one does not have to earn one's living at it."
"The secret to creativity is knowing how to hide your sources."
"The only thing that interferes with my learning is my education."
"God does not care about our mathematical difficulties. He integrates empirically."
"The whole of science is nothing more than a refinement of everyday thinking."
"Technological progress is like an axe in the hands of a pathological criminal."
"Peace cannot be kept by force. It can only be achieved by understanding."
"The most incomprehensible thing about the world is that it is comprehensible."
"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them."
"Education is what remains after one has forgotten everything he learned in school."
"The important thing is not to stop questioning. Curiosity has its own reason for existing."
"Do not worry about your difficulties in Mathematics. I can assure you mine are still greater."
"Equations are more important to me, because politics is for the present, but an equation is something for eternity."
"If A is a success in life, then A equals x plus y plus z. Work is x; y is play; and z is keeping your mouth shut."
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."
"As far as the laws of mathematics refer to reality, they are not certain, as far as they are certain, they do not refer to reality."
"Whoever undertakes to set himself up as a judge of Truth and Knowledge is shipwrecked by the laughter of the gods."
"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."
"In order to form an immaculate member of a flock of sheep one must, above all, be a sheep."
"The fear of death is the most unjustified of all fears, for there's no risk of accident for someone who's dead."
"Too many of us look upon Americans as dollar chasers. This is a cruel libel, even if it is reiterated thoughtlessly by the Americans themselves."
"Heroism on command, senseless violence, and all the loathsome nonsense that goes by the name of patriotism -- how passionately I hate them!"
"No, this trick won't work...How on earth are you ever going to explain in terms of chemistry and physics so important a biological phenomenon as first love?"
"My religion consists of a humble admiration of the illimitable superior spirit who reveals himself in the slight details we are able to perceive with our frail and feeble mind."
"Yes, we have to divide up our time like that, between our politics and our equations. But to me our equations are far more important, for politics are only a matter of present concern. A mathematical equation stands forever."
"The release of atom power has changed everything except our way of thinking...the solution to this problem lies in the heart of mankind. If only I had known, I should have become a watchmaker."
"Great spirits have always found violent opposition from mediocrities. The latter cannot understand it when a man does not thoughtlessly submit to hereditary prejudices but honestly and courageously uses his intelligence."
"The most beautiful thing we can experience is the mysterious. It is the source of all true art and all science. He to whom this emotion is a stranger, who can no longer pause to wonder and stand rapt in awe, is as good as dead: his eyes are closed."
"A man's ethical behavior should be based effectually on sympathy, education, and social ties; no religious basis is necessary. Man would indeeded be in a poor way if he had to be restrained by fear of punishment and hope of reward after death."
"The further the spiritual evolution of mankind advances, the more certain it seems to me that the path to genuine religiosity does not lie through the fear of life, and the fear of death, and blind faith, but through striving after rational knowledge."
"Now he has departed from this strange world a little ahead of me. That means nothing. People like us, who believe in physics, know that the distinction between past, present, and future is only a stubbornly persistent illusion."
"You see, wire telegraph is a kind of a very, very long cat. You pull his tail in New York and his head is meowing in Los Angeles. Do you understand this? And radio operates exactly the same way: you send signals here, they receive them there. The only difference is that there is no cat."
"One had to cram all this stuff into one's mind for the examinations, whether one liked it or not. This coercion had such a deterring effect on me that, after I had passed the final examination, I found the consideration of any scientific problems distasteful to me for an entire year."
"...one of the strongest motives that lead men to art and science is escape from everyday life with its painful crudity and hopeless dreariness, from the fetters of one's own ever-shifting desires. A finely tempered nature longs to escape from the personal life into the world of objective perception and thought."
"He who joyfully marches to music rank and file, has already earned my contempt. He has been given a large brain by mistake, since for him the spinal cord would surely suffice. This disgrace to civilization should be done away with at once. Heroism at command, how violently I hate all this, how despicable and ignoble war is; I would rather be torn to shreds than be a part of so base an action. It is my conviction that killing under the cloak of war is nothing but an act of murder."
"A human being is a part of a whole, called by us _universe_, a part limited in time and space. He experiences himself, his thoughts and feelings as something separated from the rest... a kind of optical delusion of his consciousness. This delusion is a kind of prison for us, restricting us to our personal desires and to affection for a few persons nearest to us. Our task must be to free ourselves from this prison by widening our circle of compassion to embrace all living creatures and the whole of nature in its beauty."
"Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts." (Sign hanging in Einstein's office at Princeton)
"Imagination is more important than knowledge."
"Gravitation is not responsible for people falling in love."
"I want to know God's thoughts; the rest are details."
"The hardest thing in the world to understand is the income tax."
"Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one."
"The only real valuable thing is intuition."
"A person starts to live when he can live outside himself."
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice."
"God is subtle but he is not malicious."
"Weakness of attitude becomes weakness of character."
"I never think of the future. It comes soon enough."
"The eternal mystery of the world is its comprehensibility."
"Sometimes one pays most for the things one gets for nothing."
"Science without religion is lame. Religion without science is blind."
"Anyone who has never made a mistake has never tried anything new."
"Great spirits have often encountered violent opposition from weak minds."
"Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler."
"Common sense is the collection of prejudices acquired by age eighteen."
"Science is a wonderful thing if one does not have to earn one's living at it."
"The secret to creativity is knowing how to hide your sources."
"The only thing that interferes with my learning is my education."
"God does not care about our mathematical difficulties. He integrates empirically."
"The whole of science is nothing more than a refinement of everyday thinking."
"Technological progress is like an axe in the hands of a pathological criminal."
"Peace cannot be kept by force. It can only be achieved by understanding."
"The most incomprehensible thing about the world is that it is comprehensible."
"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them."
"Education is what remains after one has forgotten everything he learned in school."
"The important thing is not to stop questioning. Curiosity has its own reason for existing."
"Do not worry about your difficulties in Mathematics. I can assure you mine are still greater."
"Equations are more important to me, because politics is for the present, but an equation is something for eternity."
"If A is a success in life, then A equals x plus y plus z. Work is x; y is play; and z is keeping your mouth shut."
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."
"As far as the laws of mathematics refer to reality, they are not certain, as far as they are certain, they do not refer to reality."
"Whoever undertakes to set himself up as a judge of Truth and Knowledge is shipwrecked by the laughter of the gods."
"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."
"In order to form an immaculate member of a flock of sheep one must, above all, be a sheep."
"The fear of death is the most unjustified of all fears, for there's no risk of accident for someone who's dead."
"Too many of us look upon Americans as dollar chasers. This is a cruel libel, even if it is reiterated thoughtlessly by the Americans themselves."
"Heroism on command, senseless violence, and all the loathsome nonsense that goes by the name of patriotism -- how passionately I hate them!"
"No, this trick won't work...How on earth are you ever going to explain in terms of chemistry and physics so important a biological phenomenon as first love?"
"My religion consists of a humble admiration of the illimitable superior spirit who reveals himself in the slight details we are able to perceive with our frail and feeble mind."
"Yes, we have to divide up our time like that, between our politics and our equations. But to me our equations are far more important, for politics are only a matter of present concern. A mathematical equation stands forever."
"The release of atom power has changed everything except our way of thinking...the solution to this problem lies in the heart of mankind. If only I had known, I should have become a watchmaker."
"Great spirits have always found violent opposition from mediocrities. The latter cannot understand it when a man does not thoughtlessly submit to hereditary prejudices but honestly and courageously uses his intelligence."
"The most beautiful thing we can experience is the mysterious. It is the source of all true art and all science. He to whom this emotion is a stranger, who can no longer pause to wonder and stand rapt in awe, is as good as dead: his eyes are closed."
"A man's ethical behavior should be based effectually on sympathy, education, and social ties; no religious basis is necessary. Man would indeeded be in a poor way if he had to be restrained by fear of punishment and hope of reward after death."
"The further the spiritual evolution of mankind advances, the more certain it seems to me that the path to genuine religiosity does not lie through the fear of life, and the fear of death, and blind faith, but through striving after rational knowledge."
"Now he has departed from this strange world a little ahead of me. That means nothing. People like us, who believe in physics, know that the distinction between past, present, and future is only a stubbornly persistent illusion."
"You see, wire telegraph is a kind of a very, very long cat. You pull his tail in New York and his head is meowing in Los Angeles. Do you understand this? And radio operates exactly the same way: you send signals here, they receive them there. The only difference is that there is no cat."
"One had to cram all this stuff into one's mind for the examinations, whether one liked it or not. This coercion had such a deterring effect on me that, after I had passed the final examination, I found the consideration of any scientific problems distasteful to me for an entire year."
"...one of the strongest motives that lead men to art and science is escape from everyday life with its painful crudity and hopeless dreariness, from the fetters of one's own ever-shifting desires. A finely tempered nature longs to escape from the personal life into the world of objective perception and thought."
"He who joyfully marches to music rank and file, has already earned my contempt. He has been given a large brain by mistake, since for him the spinal cord would surely suffice. This disgrace to civilization should be done away with at once. Heroism at command, how violently I hate all this, how despicable and ignoble war is; I would rather be torn to shreds than be a part of so base an action. It is my conviction that killing under the cloak of war is nothing but an act of murder."
"A human being is a part of a whole, called by us _universe_, a part limited in time and space. He experiences himself, his thoughts and feelings as something separated from the rest... a kind of optical delusion of his consciousness. This delusion is a kind of prison for us, restricting us to our personal desires and to affection for a few persons nearest to us. Our task must be to free ourselves from this prison by widening our circle of compassion to embrace all living creatures and the whole of nature in its beauty."
"Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts." (Sign hanging in Einstein's office at Princeton)
Friday, November 30, 2007
香 港 國 際 古 書 展 近 距 離 欣 賞 愛 因 斯 坦 筆
【 本 報 訊 】 看 見 愛 因 斯 坦 的 親 筆 題 字 ， 就 會 記 起 他 的 幽 默 感 。 「 2007 年 香 港 國 際 古 書 展 」 今 日 在 金 鐘 太 古 廣 場 舉 行 ， 世 界 各 大 書 商 來 港 前 為 展 品 作 最 後 定 案 ， 香 港 書 迷 有 緣 看 到 《 愛 因 斯 坦 收 藏 集 》 ， 近 距 離 閱 讀 愛 因 斯 坦 親 筆 短 句 及 簽 名 ； 風 靡 全 球 的 《 哈 利 波 特 》 （ Harry Potter ） 全 集 ， 一 套 七 本 ， 附 有 作 者 親 筆 簽 名 ， 既 貼 近 大 眾 巿 場 ， 也 是 收 藏 家 欣 賞 的 精 裝 極 品 。 記 者 ： 冼 麗 婷
古 書 展 書 商 來 自 歐 美 、 澳 洲 、 日 本 等 11 個 國 家 ， 除 了 帶 來 價 值 1,170 萬 港 元 （ 下 同 ） 的 16 世 紀 《 天 體 運 行 論 》 珍 貴 古 書 外 ， 不 少 百 年 老 店 的 珍 藏 ， 可 能 會 令 書 迷 有 意 外 驚 喜 。 書 展 公 關 顧 問 鍾 芳 玲 說 ， 購 買 珍 貴 老 書 送 給 重 要 人 物 ， 是 美 國 名 氣 界 的 習 慣 ， 美 國 書 店 The 19th Century Shop ， 三 任 美 國 總 統 包 括 前 總 統 克 林 頓 、 老 布 殊 及 現 任 總 統 布 殊 都 是 其 顧 客 。 鍾 芳 玲 說 ， 這 所 書 店 今 次 帶 來 包 括 愛 因 斯 坦 的 書 信 、 手 稿 、 圖 書 及 照 片 ， 一 套 合 共 十 多 件 ， 售 價 70 萬 元 。 其 中 八 件 附 有 愛 因 斯 坦 親 筆 簽 名 或 手 書 短 語 。 書 迷 除 了 可 以 看 到 愛 因 斯 坦 的 論 文 〈 重 力 與 電 的 五 維 描 述 〉 手 稿 的 複 印 件 外 ， 在 合 共 225 頁 的 《 阿 爾 伯 特 ． 愛 因 斯 坦 傳 記 》 中 ， 更 可 看 到 幽 默 科 學 家 的 親 筆 簽 名 和 德 文 題 字 ： 「 活 的 時 候 就 被 否 定 是 人 生 的 樂 趣 ， 讀 愛 因 斯 坦 不 要 忘 記 他 的 幽 默 。 」 James D. Watson 與 Francis Crick 發 現 DNA ， 是 現 代 基 因 與 生 物 學 的 基 石 ， 對 人 類 有 重 大 影 響 。 《 自 然 》 （ Nature ） 雜 誌 1953 年 4 月 25 日 發 表 DNA 結 構 的 宣 言 ， 宣 言 後 來 被 重 刊 ， The 19th Century Shop 擁 有 的 重 刊 版 本 ， 是 稀 有 第 一 版 單 行 本 ， 附 有 上 述 兩 人 的 親 筆 簽 名 ， 售 價 100 萬 元 。
第 一 版 書 籍 多 留 給 收 藏 家
來 自 英 國 的 參 展 書 商 Adrain Harrington Rare Books 帶 來 一 套 七 本 《 哈 利 波 特 》 全 集 ， 售 價 96 萬 元 。 全 部 是 第 一 版 第 一 刷 精 裝 版 本 ， 每 一 本 都 附 有 作 者 羅 林 （ Joanne Kathleen Rowling ） 的 親 筆 簽 名 。 鍾 芳 玲 說 ， 書 商 看 準 《 哈 利 波 特 》 在 香 港 大 有 巿 場 ， 所 以 最 後 關 頭 特 意 找 來 珍 貴 全 集 展 出 。 她 說 ， 第 一 版 書 籍 發 行 量 一 般 是 較 少 的 ， 主 要 留 給 圖 書 館 及 收 藏 家 收 藏 。
《 愛 因 斯 坦 收 藏 集 》
特 色 ： 書 信 、 手 稿 、 照 片 、 圖 書 集 成 書 商 ： The 19th Century Shop售 價 ： 70 萬 元
愛 因 斯 坦
愛 因 斯 坦 手 稿 複 印 版 。
1953 年 發 表 DNA 《 核 酸 的 分 子 結 構 ： 脫 氧 核 醣 核 酸 結 構 》 重 刊 本
特 色 ： 附 有 發 現 DNA 的 學 者 James D. Watson 與 Francis Crick 的 親 筆 簽 名 書 商 ： The 19th Century Shop售 價 ： 100 萬 元
James D. Watson （ 右 ） 與 Francis Crick （ 左 ）
《 自 然 》 雜 誌 1953 年 發 表 的 DNA 結 構 宣 言 後 來 被 重 刊 ， 右 上 角 有 兩 位 發 明 者 親 筆 簽 名 。
《 哈 利 波 特 》 （ Harry Potter ） 全 集 （ 1997-2007 ）
羅 林
特 色 ： 一 套 七 本 ， 每 本 都 附 有 作 者 羅 林 Joanne Kathleen Rowling 的 簽 名 書 商 ： Adrian Harrington Rare Books售 價 ： 96 萬 元
2007 年 香 港 國 際 古 書 展 資 料
今 日 ： 下 午 5 時 至 晚 上 8 時 明 日 ： 上 午 10 時 至 下 午 6 時 星 期 日 ： 上 午 10 時 至 下 午 4 時 地 點 ： 香 港 金 鐘 太 古 廣 場 一 座 會 議 廳 5 樓 入 場 費 ： 50 元 （ 3 日 有 效 ） 相 關 網 址 ： http://www.hongkongantiquarianbookfair.com
【 本 報 訊 】 看 見 愛 因 斯 坦 的 親 筆 題 字 ， 就 會 記 起 他 的 幽 默 感 。 「 2007 年 香 港 國 際 古 書 展 」 今 日 在 金 鐘 太 古 廣 場 舉 行 ， 世 界 各 大 書 商 來 港 前 為 展 品 作 最 後 定 案 ， 香 港 書 迷 有 緣 看 到 《 愛 因 斯 坦 收 藏 集 》 ， 近 距 離 閱 讀 愛 因 斯 坦 親 筆 短 句 及 簽 名 ； 風 靡 全 球 的 《 哈 利 波 特 》 （ Harry Potter ） 全 集 ， 一 套 七 本 ， 附 有 作 者 親 筆 簽 名 ， 既 貼 近 大 眾 巿 場 ， 也 是 收 藏 家 欣 賞 的 精 裝 極 品 。 記 者 ： 冼 麗 婷
古 書 展 書 商 來 自 歐 美 、 澳 洲 、 日 本 等 11 個 國 家 ， 除 了 帶 來 價 值 1,170 萬 港 元 （ 下 同 ） 的 16 世 紀 《 天 體 運 行 論 》 珍 貴 古 書 外 ， 不 少 百 年 老 店 的 珍 藏 ， 可 能 會 令 書 迷 有 意 外 驚 喜 。 書 展 公 關 顧 問 鍾 芳 玲 說 ， 購 買 珍 貴 老 書 送 給 重 要 人 物 ， 是 美 國 名 氣 界 的 習 慣 ， 美 國 書 店 The 19th Century Shop ， 三 任 美 國 總 統 包 括 前 總 統 克 林 頓 、 老 布 殊 及 現 任 總 統 布 殊 都 是 其 顧 客 。 鍾 芳 玲 說 ， 這 所 書 店 今 次 帶 來 包 括 愛 因 斯 坦 的 書 信 、 手 稿 、 圖 書 及 照 片 ， 一 套 合 共 十 多 件 ， 售 價 70 萬 元 。 其 中 八 件 附 有 愛 因 斯 坦 親 筆 簽 名 或 手 書 短 語 。 書 迷 除 了 可 以 看 到 愛 因 斯 坦 的 論 文 〈 重 力 與 電 的 五 維 描 述 〉 手 稿 的 複 印 件 外 ， 在 合 共 225 頁 的 《 阿 爾 伯 特 ． 愛 因 斯 坦 傳 記 》 中 ， 更 可 看 到 幽 默 科 學 家 的 親 筆 簽 名 和 德 文 題 字 ： 「 活 的 時 候 就 被 否 定 是 人 生 的 樂 趣 ， 讀 愛 因 斯 坦 不 要 忘 記 他 的 幽 默 。 」 James D. Watson 與 Francis Crick 發 現 DNA ， 是 現 代 基 因 與 生 物 學 的 基 石 ， 對 人 類 有 重 大 影 響 。 《 自 然 》 （ Nature ） 雜 誌 1953 年 4 月 25 日 發 表 DNA 結 構 的 宣 言 ， 宣 言 後 來 被 重 刊 ， The 19th Century Shop 擁 有 的 重 刊 版 本 ， 是 稀 有 第 一 版 單 行 本 ， 附 有 上 述 兩 人 的 親 筆 簽 名 ， 售 價 100 萬 元 。
第 一 版 書 籍 多 留 給 收 藏 家
來 自 英 國 的 參 展 書 商 Adrain Harrington Rare Books 帶 來 一 套 七 本 《 哈 利 波 特 》 全 集 ， 售 價 96 萬 元 。 全 部 是 第 一 版 第 一 刷 精 裝 版 本 ， 每 一 本 都 附 有 作 者 羅 林 （ Joanne Kathleen Rowling ） 的 親 筆 簽 名 。 鍾 芳 玲 說 ， 書 商 看 準 《 哈 利 波 特 》 在 香 港 大 有 巿 場 ， 所 以 最 後 關 頭 特 意 找 來 珍 貴 全 集 展 出 。 她 說 ， 第 一 版 書 籍 發 行 量 一 般 是 較 少 的 ， 主 要 留 給 圖 書 館 及 收 藏 家 收 藏 。
《 愛 因 斯 坦 收 藏 集 》
特 色 ： 書 信 、 手 稿 、 照 片 、 圖 書 集 成 書 商 ： The 19th Century Shop售 價 ： 70 萬 元
愛 因 斯 坦
愛 因 斯 坦 手 稿 複 印 版 。
1953 年 發 表 DNA 《 核 酸 的 分 子 結 構 ： 脫 氧 核 醣 核 酸 結 構 》 重 刊 本
特 色 ： 附 有 發 現 DNA 的 學 者 James D. Watson 與 Francis Crick 的 親 筆 簽 名 書 商 ： The 19th Century Shop售 價 ： 100 萬 元
James D. Watson （ 右 ） 與 Francis Crick （ 左 ）
《 自 然 》 雜 誌 1953 年 發 表 的 DNA 結 構 宣 言 後 來 被 重 刊 ， 右 上 角 有 兩 位 發 明 者 親 筆 簽 名 。
《 哈 利 波 特 》 （ Harry Potter ） 全 集 （ 1997-2007 ）
羅 林
特 色 ： 一 套 七 本 ， 每 本 都 附 有 作 者 羅 林 Joanne Kathleen Rowling 的 簽 名 書 商 ： Adrian Harrington Rare Books售 價 ： 96 萬 元
2007 年 香 港 國 際 古 書 展 資 料
今 日 ： 下 午 5 時 至 晚 上 8 時 明 日 ： 上 午 10 時 至 下 午 6 時 星 期 日 ： 上 午 10 時 至 下 午 4 時 地 點 ： 香 港 金 鐘 太 古 廣 場 一 座 會 議 廳 5 樓 入 場 費 ： 50 元 （ 3 日 有 效 ） 相 關 網 址 ： http://www.hongkongantiquarianbookfair.com
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
Introduction to Game theory
Game theory is a branch of applied mathematics that is often used in the context of economics. It studies strategic interactions between agents. In strategic games, agents choose strategies which will maximize their return, given the strategies the other agents choose. The essential feature is that it provides a formal modelling approach to social situations in which decision makers interact with other agents. Game theory extends the simpler optimisation approach developed in neoclassical economics.
In game theory, normal form is a way of describing a game. Unlike extensive form, normal form representations are not graphical per se, but rather represent the game with a matrix. While this approach can be of greater use in identifying strictly dominated strategies and Nash equilibria, some information is lost as compared to extensive form representations. The normal form representation of a game includes all perceptible and conceivable strategies, and their corresponding payoffs, of each player.
In static games of complete, imperfect information, a normal form representation of a game is a specification of players' strategy spaces and payoff functions. A strategy space for a player is the set of all strategies available to that player, where a strategy is a complete plan of action for every stage of the game, regardless of whether that stage actually arises in play. A payoff function for a player is a mapping from the cross-product of players' strategy spaces to that player's set of payoffs (normally the set of real numbers, where the number represents a cardinal or ordinal utility - often cardinal in the normal form representation) of a player, i.e. the payoff function of a player takes as its input a strategy profile (that is a specification of strategies for every player) and yields a representation of payoff as its output.
Economists have long used game theory to analyze a wide array of economic phenomena, including auctions, bargaining, duopolies, fair division, oligopolies, social network formation, and voting systems. This research usually focuses on particular sets of strategies known as equilibria in games. These "solution concepts" are usually based on what is required by norms of rationality. The most famous of these is the Nash equilibrium. A set of strategies is a Nash equilibrium if each represents a best response to the other strategies. So, if all the players are playing the strategies in a Nash equilibrium, they have no unilateral incentive to deviate, since their strategy is the best they can do given what others are doing.
The payoffs of the game are generally taken to represent the utility of individual players. Often in modeling situations the payoffs represent money, which presumably corresponds to an individual's utility. This assumption, however, can be faulty.
A prototypical paper on game theory in economics begins by presenting a game that is an abstraction of some particular economic situation. One or more solution concepts are chosen, and the author demonstrates which strategy sets in the presented game are equilibria of the appropriate type. Naturally one might wonder to what use should this information be put. Economists and business professors suggest two primary uses.
In game theory, dominance (also called strategic dominance) occurs when one strategy is better than another strategy for one player, no matter how that player's opponents may play. Many simple games can be solved using dominance. The opposite, intransitivity, occurs in games where one strategy may be better or worse than another strategy for one player, depending on how the player's opponents may play.
For example:
When a player tries to choose the "best" strategy among a multitude of options, that player may compare two strategies A and B to see which one is better. The result of the comparison is one of:
B dominates A: choosing B always gives at least as good an outcome as choosing A. There are 2 possibilities:
B strictly dominates A: choosing B always gives a better outcome than choosing A, no matter what the other player(s) do.
B weakly dominates A: There is at least one set of opponents' action for which B is superior, and all other sets of opponents' actions give B at least the same payoff as A.
B and A are intransitive: B neither dominates, nor is dominated by, A. Choosing A is better in some cases, while choosing B is better in other cases, depending on exactly how the opponent chooses to play. For example, B is "throw rock" while A is "throw scissors" in Rock, Paper, Scissors.
B is dominated by A: choosing B never gives a better outcome than choosing A, no matter what the other player(s) do. There are 2 possibilities:
B is weakly dominated by A: There is at least one set of opponents' actions for which B gives a worse outcome than A, while all other sets of opponents' actions give A at least the same payoff as B. (Strategy A weakly dominates B).
B is strictly dominated by A: choosing B always gives a worse outcome than choosing A, no matter what the other player(s) do. (Strategy A strictly dominates B).
This notion can be generalized beyond the comparison of two strategies.
Strategy B is strictly dominant if strategy B strictly dominates every other possible strategy.
Strategy B is weakly dominant if strategy B dominates all other strategies, but some are only weakly dominated.
Strategy B is strictly dominated if some other strategy exists that strictly dominates B.
Strategy B is weakly dominated if some other strategy exists that weakly dominates B.
If a strictly dominant strategy exists for one player in a game, that player will play that strategy in each of the game's Nash equilibrium. If both players have a strictly dominant strategy, the game has only one unique Nash equilibrium -- however, that Nash equilibrium is not necessarily Pareto optimal, meaning that there may be non-equilibrium outcomes of the game that would be better for both players. The classic game used to illustrate this is the Prisoner's Dilemma.
Strictly dominated strategies cannot be a part of a Nash equilibrium, and as such it is irrational for any player to play them. On the other hand, weakly dominated strategies may be part of Nash equilibria. For instance consider the payoff matrix pictured to the right.
Strategy C weakly dominates strategy D. Consider playing C: if one's opponent plays C one gets 1; if one's opponent plays D one gets 0. Compare this to D where one gets 0 regardless. Since in one case one does better by playing C instead of D and never does worse, C weakly dominates D. Despite this, (D, D) is a Nash equilibrium. Suppose both players choose D. Neither player will do any better by unilaterally deviating -- if a player switches to playing C, they will still get 0. This satisfies the requirements of a Nash equilibrium.
In game theory, normal form is a way of describing a game. Unlike extensive form, normal form representations are not graphical per se, but rather represent the game with a matrix. While this approach can be of greater use in identifying strictly dominated strategies and Nash equilibria, some information is lost as compared to extensive form representations. The normal form representation of a game includes all perceptible and conceivable strategies, and their corresponding payoffs, of each player.
In static games of complete, imperfect information, a normal form representation of a game is a specification of players' strategy spaces and payoff functions. A strategy space for a player is the set of all strategies available to that player, where a strategy is a complete plan of action for every stage of the game, regardless of whether that stage actually arises in play. A payoff function for a player is a mapping from the cross-product of players' strategy spaces to that player's set of payoffs (normally the set of real numbers, where the number represents a cardinal or ordinal utility - often cardinal in the normal form representation) of a player, i.e. the payoff function of a player takes as its input a strategy profile (that is a specification of strategies for every player) and yields a representation of payoff as its output.
Economists have long used game theory to analyze a wide array of economic phenomena, including auctions, bargaining, duopolies, fair division, oligopolies, social network formation, and voting systems. This research usually focuses on particular sets of strategies known as equilibria in games. These "solution concepts" are usually based on what is required by norms of rationality. The most famous of these is the Nash equilibrium. A set of strategies is a Nash equilibrium if each represents a best response to the other strategies. So, if all the players are playing the strategies in a Nash equilibrium, they have no unilateral incentive to deviate, since their strategy is the best they can do given what others are doing.
The payoffs of the game are generally taken to represent the utility of individual players. Often in modeling situations the payoffs represent money, which presumably corresponds to an individual's utility. This assumption, however, can be faulty.
A prototypical paper on game theory in economics begins by presenting a game that is an abstraction of some particular economic situation. One or more solution concepts are chosen, and the author demonstrates which strategy sets in the presented game are equilibria of the appropriate type. Naturally one might wonder to what use should this information be put. Economists and business professors suggest two primary uses.
In game theory, dominance (also called strategic dominance) occurs when one strategy is better than another strategy for one player, no matter how that player's opponents may play. Many simple games can be solved using dominance. The opposite, intransitivity, occurs in games where one strategy may be better or worse than another strategy for one player, depending on how the player's opponents may play.
For example:
When a player tries to choose the "best" strategy among a multitude of options, that player may compare two strategies A and B to see which one is better. The result of the comparison is one of:
B dominates A: choosing B always gives at least as good an outcome as choosing A. There are 2 possibilities:
B strictly dominates A: choosing B always gives a better outcome than choosing A, no matter what the other player(s) do.
B weakly dominates A: There is at least one set of opponents' action for which B is superior, and all other sets of opponents' actions give B at least the same payoff as A.
B and A are intransitive: B neither dominates, nor is dominated by, A. Choosing A is better in some cases, while choosing B is better in other cases, depending on exactly how the opponent chooses to play. For example, B is "throw rock" while A is "throw scissors" in Rock, Paper, Scissors.
B is dominated by A: choosing B never gives a better outcome than choosing A, no matter what the other player(s) do. There are 2 possibilities:
B is weakly dominated by A: There is at least one set of opponents' actions for which B gives a worse outcome than A, while all other sets of opponents' actions give A at least the same payoff as B. (Strategy A weakly dominates B).
B is strictly dominated by A: choosing B always gives a worse outcome than choosing A, no matter what the other player(s) do. (Strategy A strictly dominates B).
This notion can be generalized beyond the comparison of two strategies.
Strategy B is strictly dominant if strategy B strictly dominates every other possible strategy.
Strategy B is weakly dominant if strategy B dominates all other strategies, but some are only weakly dominated.
Strategy B is strictly dominated if some other strategy exists that strictly dominates B.
Strategy B is weakly dominated if some other strategy exists that weakly dominates B.
If a strictly dominant strategy exists for one player in a game, that player will play that strategy in each of the game's Nash equilibrium. If both players have a strictly dominant strategy, the game has only one unique Nash equilibrium -- however, that Nash equilibrium is not necessarily Pareto optimal, meaning that there may be non-equilibrium outcomes of the game that would be better for both players. The classic game used to illustrate this is the Prisoner's Dilemma.
Strictly dominated strategies cannot be a part of a Nash equilibrium, and as such it is irrational for any player to play them. On the other hand, weakly dominated strategies may be part of Nash equilibria. For instance consider the payoff matrix pictured to the right.
Strategy C weakly dominates strategy D. Consider playing C: if one's opponent plays C one gets 1; if one's opponent plays D one gets 0. Compare this to D where one gets 0 regardless. Since in one case one does better by playing C instead of D and never does worse, C weakly dominates D. Despite this, (D, D) is a Nash equilibrium. Suppose both players choose D. Neither player will do any better by unilaterally deviating -- if a player switches to playing C, they will still get 0. This satisfies the requirements of a Nash equilibrium.
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
HSBC Sets Bailout Plan for Assets of 2 Funds
Published: November 27, 2007
LONDON, Nov. 26 — Europe’s largest bank, HSBC Holdings, said Monday that it would bail out its two structured investment vehicles, or SIVs, by taking $45 billion in assets onto its balance sheet.
The move was an attempt to repair investor confidence and create a long-term solution for assets that have become difficult to value or sell since problems with subprime mortgages in the United States sent jitters through the global credit markets.
Another British bank, Northern Rock, also moved to repair damage caused by the tight credit markets by picking the Virgin Group as its preferred buyer.
HSBC said Monday in a statement that investors in the two SIVs — Cullinan Finance and Asscher Finance — would be able to swap their holdings for debt issued by a new company backed by HSBC loans. The bank said that it did not expect the move to have a material impact on its earnings or capital strength.
Three institutions — Bank of America, Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase — are working to set up a $75 billion fund to stabilize the SIVs, which use short-term financing to buy higher-yielding and longer-term debt and are among the biggest buyers of pools of mortgages and other complex asset-backed securities.
The bailout means HSBC will not participate in the larger SIV fund, a bank spokesman said. Instead, HSBC expects its action to “set a benchmark and restore a degree of confidence to the SIV sector, while providing a specific solution to address the challenges faced by investors in Cullinan and Asscher,” Stuart Gulliver, HSBC’s chief executive of corporate and investment banking, said in the statement.
The step may prompt other banks to seek similar solutions, some analysts said.
While HSBC may have found a way to bolster investor confidence in its SIVs, some bank executives are still concerned about additional write-downs, especially after HSBC said earlier this month that losses in the housing market were spreading to credit card and other consumer loans, forcing it to set aside $3.4 billion, more than it had forecast four months earlier.
HSBC may have to set aside an additional $12 billion for bad debts, Roy Ramos and other Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a note, lowering their recommendation for the stock to sell, from neutral. Shares of HSBC fell about 16 pence, to £8.12 in London trading Monday. They have dropped 13 percent this year.
Shares in Northern Rock, in the meantime, rose 33 percent, to £1.15 after the troubled mortgage lender — looking for a buyer to help repay more than $41 billion in emergency loans from the Bank of England — said it planned to speed up takeover discussions with Virgin while continuing to explore other options.
Virgin’s bidding group, which includes the billionaire investor Wilbur L. Ross, proposed to immediately repay £11 billion of loans as part of “a clear path toward repayment in full” and to bring Northern Rock under the Virgin brand by combining it with Virgin Money.
Virgin would also inject £1.3 billion into Northern Rock, half of which it aims to finance by offering new shares to existing shareholders at 25 pence each. The implied value of Virgin Money is £250 million, bringing the total investment from Virgin, which would own 55 percent of Northern Rock, to £1.55 billion, or $3.2 billion, Northern Rock said.
The chairman of Northern Rock, Bryan Sanderson, said in a statement that he was “pleased that a solution that firmly restores the company’s prospects has been identified.”
Northern Rock had to ask for emergency assistance when turmoil in the credit markets caused the bank’s access to financing to dry up, causing panic among its depositors and a run on the bank.
A solution for Northern Rock would come as a relief for the British government, which has been criticized for being slow to react to the credit squeeze.
Pressure on Chancellor Alistair Darling to find a solution mounted as the possible burden on British taxpayers became clear and the emergency loans exceeded the country’s transport budget. The situation has already dented the Labor government’s reputation for economic competence and a failure to find a buyer may force it to either nationalize Northern Rock or put it into administration.
LONDON, Nov. 26 — Europe’s largest bank, HSBC Holdings, said Monday that it would bail out its two structured investment vehicles, or SIVs, by taking $45 billion in assets onto its balance sheet.
The move was an attempt to repair investor confidence and create a long-term solution for assets that have become difficult to value or sell since problems with subprime mortgages in the United States sent jitters through the global credit markets.
Another British bank, Northern Rock, also moved to repair damage caused by the tight credit markets by picking the Virgin Group as its preferred buyer.
HSBC said Monday in a statement that investors in the two SIVs — Cullinan Finance and Asscher Finance — would be able to swap their holdings for debt issued by a new company backed by HSBC loans. The bank said that it did not expect the move to have a material impact on its earnings or capital strength.
Three institutions — Bank of America, Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase — are working to set up a $75 billion fund to stabilize the SIVs, which use short-term financing to buy higher-yielding and longer-term debt and are among the biggest buyers of pools of mortgages and other complex asset-backed securities.
The bailout means HSBC will not participate in the larger SIV fund, a bank spokesman said. Instead, HSBC expects its action to “set a benchmark and restore a degree of confidence to the SIV sector, while providing a specific solution to address the challenges faced by investors in Cullinan and Asscher,” Stuart Gulliver, HSBC’s chief executive of corporate and investment banking, said in the statement.
The step may prompt other banks to seek similar solutions, some analysts said.
While HSBC may have found a way to bolster investor confidence in its SIVs, some bank executives are still concerned about additional write-downs, especially after HSBC said earlier this month that losses in the housing market were spreading to credit card and other consumer loans, forcing it to set aside $3.4 billion, more than it had forecast four months earlier.
HSBC may have to set aside an additional $12 billion for bad debts, Roy Ramos and other Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a note, lowering their recommendation for the stock to sell, from neutral. Shares of HSBC fell about 16 pence, to £8.12 in London trading Monday. They have dropped 13 percent this year.
Shares in Northern Rock, in the meantime, rose 33 percent, to £1.15 after the troubled mortgage lender — looking for a buyer to help repay more than $41 billion in emergency loans from the Bank of England — said it planned to speed up takeover discussions with Virgin while continuing to explore other options.
Virgin’s bidding group, which includes the billionaire investor Wilbur L. Ross, proposed to immediately repay £11 billion of loans as part of “a clear path toward repayment in full” and to bring Northern Rock under the Virgin brand by combining it with Virgin Money.
Virgin would also inject £1.3 billion into Northern Rock, half of which it aims to finance by offering new shares to existing shareholders at 25 pence each. The implied value of Virgin Money is £250 million, bringing the total investment from Virgin, which would own 55 percent of Northern Rock, to £1.55 billion, or $3.2 billion, Northern Rock said.
The chairman of Northern Rock, Bryan Sanderson, said in a statement that he was “pleased that a solution that firmly restores the company’s prospects has been identified.”
Northern Rock had to ask for emergency assistance when turmoil in the credit markets caused the bank’s access to financing to dry up, causing panic among its depositors and a run on the bank.
A solution for Northern Rock would come as a relief for the British government, which has been criticized for being slow to react to the credit squeeze.
Pressure on Chancellor Alistair Darling to find a solution mounted as the possible burden on British taxpayers became clear and the emergency loans exceeded the country’s transport budget. The situation has already dented the Labor government’s reputation for economic competence and a failure to find a buyer may force it to either nationalize Northern Rock or put it into administration.
Beginning
Hi there!
I'm Ken. I am from HK. I'm a year 1 student studying Economics and Finance at Hong Kong Shue Yan University.
I wanna utilize this blog to share with u my scientific analysis of everything in order to make ur life exciting and beautiful.
love fung
I'm Ken. I am from HK. I'm a year 1 student studying Economics and Finance at Hong Kong Shue Yan University.
I wanna utilize this blog to share with u my scientific analysis of everything in order to make ur life exciting and beautiful.
love fung
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